Often, executives are forced to make decisions based on incomplete information in the midst of a time-sensitive event or crisis. However, some of these situations are potentially avoidable, as some risk events (particularly slow velocity ones) exhibit subtle signals or indicators which in aggregation inform observers that something bigger and more material is underway. One of these tools is strategic early warning (also known as ‘strategic indications and warning’), which is applied against a material scenario where advanced notice of an impending issue is desirable. The purpose of strategic early warning is to give decision makers as much notice as possible about a potential risk event, enabling (hopefully) better quality decisions which can be made early, potentially before competitors or adversaries. This article explains the concepts of strategic early warning and its importance and role in decision quality, the benefits of doing so in business, how to develop early warning models in six steps, and how to build these into a continous monitoring capability. Continue reading →